Evidence archive
Lab
Public bets grouped by status — including deliberately killed. Source YAML in Opportunity OS; rebuild refreshes these pages.
Running
None
Completed
- archivedSpout Product Feedback — reopen → submit
BetSUBMITTED — access unlocked; balance-indexer bug blocked buy/borrow; report + public package still shipped.
Why nowBeta code arrived after EXP_SPOUT_001 kill (access gate). Kill reason cleared → reopen then submit.
Time redeem + explore + report + public repo + human Earn submit · Money $0 · Attention released_after_submit
- archivedMermail skill bounty — submitted
BetSUBMITTED — PR + X demo + Earn submit closed the controllable loop; review is external wait.
Why nowPrior kill was no-X; X returned (manual paste). Submit Gate opened after PR
Time build + real-screen demo + PR + human Earn submit · Money $0 · Attention released_after_submit
- archivedHarvest friction: Landing overflow + Gumroad deposit truth
BetFix three harvest blockers found in dry-run before spending more distribution attention.
Why nowEXP_CASH_001/002 were already live; a broken checkout path would falsify payment experiments for the wrong reason.
Time ~90 min dry-run + fixes · Money $0 · Attention medium
- successOneForma registration → dashboard access
BetComplete access fail-fast through profile+preferences until tasks visible.
Why nowNext-round authority; parallel to Proof
Time ~90 min incl. profile OTP/handoff · Money $0 · Attention medium
- archivedUgly closed loop: Cookie Chain cApp → Superteam submit
BetSHIP one Nightly-ready Cookie Ping cApp and submit — prove closed-loop speed over polish.
Why nowFirst Opportunity Edge bet with Control>0 only while building; after submit Control collapses to waiting (external revi…
Time ~2 days scaffold → smoke → submit · Money $0 · Attention high_then_near_zero
Failed
Blocked
- CLOSED_ROLE_LOCATION_UNAVAILABLEOutlier zh-TW role access (granular failure)
BetTEST Outlier as next MICRO_PAY after Userfeel ACCESS_BLOCKED — without auto-promoting OneForma.
Why nowTW-listed self-serve looked like lowest friction for Access Funnel evidence.
Time ~45 min · Money $0 · Attention medium
- CLOSED_QUAL_BLOCKEDOneForma first timed earning: Fred Annotation CTW
BetOperator authority — Fred only; stop at pre-apply qual gates.
Why nowAccess proven; next uncertainty is earning after first hits.
Time ~2 min to first block · Money $0 · Attention low
- CLOSED_ACCESS_BLOCKEDAccessible earning rate & task supply on Userfeel under operator constraints
BetTEST Userfeel as Phase C micro-pay field experiment for Decision→Result→Learning loop.
Why nowHighest TTF ranking in alt-paid research; needed a controllable earning experiment.
Time ~1h signup attempts · Money $0 · Attention medium
Killed
- KilledOne warm VALUE observation → human response (Synthesia)
BetTEST #3 now per operator+coordinator; WAITING_IS_NOT_ATTENTION
Why nowIsolate care-when-seen vs public distribution noise; ≤15 min.
Time ≤15 min · Money $0 · Attention low
- KilledKill: Spout Product Feedback blocked on beta gate
BetOPEN Spout feedback only if beta access arrives inside the attention budget; otherwise kill the path.
Why nowListing showed near-zero submissions and a cash pool — looked like a high EOV FAST bet until the access gate appeared.
Time ~45 min research + outreach drafts · Money $0 · Attention burned_then_released